By Dave Beck
Some say Cymru can’t afford independence nor afford to adopt a Universal Basic Income. But neither is a unicorn dream and together they could end poverty
When we think about ‘poverty’, we know what it looks like. Poverty reflects concerns such as insufficiency, hardship, privation, and deprivation. Take deprivation: to have been deprived of something, or have had something taken away from you. We know that to be in poverty reveals what it’s like to be deprived, living an inadequate life, unable to participate in activities that are normally everyday expectations of living in the UK in 2025. These are just abstract concepts for some – but are lived realities for too many.
Austerity left its stubborn stains on levels of poverty in Cymru throughout the 2010s, averaging between 23-24%. New data from the Joseph Rowntree Foundation shows this number has improved over the last two years, as poverty levels dropped slightly to 21%. However, this figure equates to roughly 700,000 people. Put another way, that’s approximately the entire population of North Wales. So this is still not nearly good enough.
Lack of money
Let’s look at poverty from a basic conceptual level: lack of enough income. As the pioneering work of Peter Townsend showed in the 1970s, in the UK – as with other ‘developed’ countries – poverty is better understood as being relative to the place and time you live in. With a social security system that provides both financial and non-financial support, we can say beyond reasonable doubt that poverty is a lack of enough money to be able to do what’s normal and expected in your society.
So what if I told you that we actually know how to end poverty – we just lack the political will to do so? In this article, I’m expressing hope that a future independent Cymru will be led by a government that puts the needs of people first. That it will take radical action and become the first country in the world to end poverty.
In simple terms: if poverty is a lack of money, then surely ensuring that people have enough money would see the end of poverty? Or it would certainly speed up the progress to a poverty-free Cymru. So why not just give people money?
This is a concept I’ve been working on for several years. Others have too, and it’s a movement of progressive policy thinking that reflects our society, both post-Covid and what we’d like to see post-austerity. Progressive movements such as the four-day week, working from home, and unlimited paid time off, alongside a Universal Basic Income (UBI), have received much more attention since Covid. People have increased recognition of the desire to approach life in better ways.
What a Basic Income could look like
Imagine a Cymru where every citizen receives a guaranteed income. Enough money to live poverty-free every month, in your bank, with no questions asked or rules as to what you should do with it. This is no utopian fantasy. It’s been seriously considered by governments around the world for decades.
Finland ran one of the most famous pilots, its government wanting to examine UBI and its role in helping unemployed people back into work. Many pilots have been run, in low-, medium-, and high-income countries and areas. These included Stockton (California), Manitoba and Ontario (Canada), Madhya Pradesh (India), and parts of Kenya. Alaska has had a functioning form of UBI since 1982 via its Permanent Fund Dividend, based on oil and mineral royalties.
Wales hasn’t lacked ambition to pilot UBI – it’s been conducting a trial of Basic Income with care leavers in recent years. Over 500 young people exiting the care system are given (pre-tax) £1,600 per month over a 24-month pilot, with the overall goal of improving wellbeing.
However, the Welsh Government has decided not to continue and will end the pilot in May 2025 due to cost concerns and budget constraints. The scheme hasn’t been fully evaluated so complete data isn’t available yet. But initial feedback is positive, suggesting it may have significantly improved the wellbeing of participants.
Hefin Gwilym and I argue that Wales should extend this pilot, calling its premature ending a missed opportunity to show the world UBI’s revolutionary powers. It proves that a Cymru dependent on Westminster really has its hands tied. Devolving social security to Cymru could bring numerous benefits, but not enough. Devolved control would enable policies tailored to the specific needs of Welsh citizens. If we truly want to ensure Cymru becomes poverty-free, independence is the way forward.
Independence and a Welsh UBI
Cymru can afford to fund a UBI payment to every citizen. In other articles I’ve detailed both the short-term and long-term funding options for UBI. It’s here that independence breeds confidence in a UBI, as we could poverty-proof our population and stimulate our economy by increasing consumer spending. Short-term gains can be achieved through allied policies such as rent caps and repayment to Cymru for HS2, while over the longer term it needs to be seen as an investment in our people.
Money could be directed from downstream savings to key areas of social policy. Savings from GIG Cymru (NHS Wales) would become available through elevated health and social care outcomes. The same would be true of the criminal justice system, as lower levels of poverty reduce crime, punishment, and probation. Losses currently incurred through lack of control over the Crown Estate could be converted to significant revenues an independent Cymru would have at its disposal.
Because a Welsh UBI would be a revolution in social policy, the likes of which haven’t been seen since the Beveridge Report, full independence would be required. To deliver a UBI effectively, Cymru would need the power to manage its own tax collection and redistribution affairs, allowing us to increase taxes for the individuals and businesses that can most afford it. The finer details of this have been explored by Emlyn Phillips, writing here on Welsh independence.
This all leaves a gaping question – how practical would an independent Cymru with a UBI be, given the border we share with our neighbour? And how would it work for those who, like me, live in Cymru but work in England (or vice versa), with respect to collection of tax and National Insurance?
Borders and benefits
A UBI could be appealing to those living outside of Cymru. We would have to design new policies for a new government to reflect this. Minimum residency periods are one way to prevent welfare migration.
Just as important would be the retention of people in Cymru. A recent study found that the country suffers from significant ‘brain drain’, with many of our graduates leaving either across the border to England or even further afield.
Independence would give Cymru the chance to do things radically differently. It would offer an historic chance to end poverty and inequality through a true safety net in the form of a UBI. We could lead the way in the world, and we could afford it. This is no unicorn dream, and we can’t afford not to.
